Imagine that the Chiefs do that and maybe finish the regular season 15-2 after trading away Tyreek Hill. Player Pos Team Opponent Dome Fantasy Points Overall Rank Photo: USA Today Sports Images. I think for a non-QB to win you need a perception of Value, since a QB will always win actual value. For starters, this prediction is neither bold or outside of the box, considering its been recycled time and time again this offseason. I feel like Kaiir Elam has some juice as a DROTY in a world where QBs look across the field and see White, Hyde, Poyer, and Johnson, and just keep testing the rookie. I don't actually like any of the big underdogs to win this week, but I have been riding Jacksonville since the preseason, so I'll stick with them. Quis autem vel eum iure reprehenderit qui in ea voluptate velit esse quam nihil molestiae consequatur, vel illum qui dolorem? Instead, I'm going with Kirk Cousins. That means another year with a lot of passes going to Kupp. Having Mahomes as the consensus QB1 seems an odd thing to assume given how much his PFF grade cratered last year: 2018: 93.2 Is kc gonna win enough games for that? But Mack certainly fits the profile of a comeback player: a double-digit sack guy coming back from missing half the year from an injury which theoretically shouldn't slow him down too much this season. 1 seed thanks to that schedule, and from there who knows? A lot of that opinion stems from the Bucaneers offensive ineptitude, as Tampa Bay sits just 27th in points per game despite its offense ranking out Top 10 in Passing But I think the Eagles have a shockingly good chance of winning the No. Bet Now, B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Philadelphia Eagles (+200) Bryan: I have always been a little obsessed with the 1,000/1,000 season; nice, big, round numbers. 2 pass offense and the Chargers have the No. No. I also think Payton is firmly in veteran experienced retread territory now, rather than young/innovative (not that that is necessarily a bad thing). Spread: Raiders -6.5 (-110) vs. Rams +6.5 (-110), Moneyline: Raiders (-305) vs. Rams (+240), Total: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110). It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. And maybe the Jaguars go 9-8 and sneak into a division title. New Orleans has also been a tough opponent for Tom Brady since he arrived in Tampa, with NOLA going 4-1 straight up and against the spread vs. the Bucs in the regular season the past three years. They're one-man jobs rather than Scramble's old two-person stuff, so we're calling it something new, but it's the same articles and topics we've always covered. Week 14. Says something about bettors, methinks. The games high-scoring and fast-paced expectations can Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Aligning the talent. :). There are multiple elements of coaching. There are less reasons to doubt them than any of the other top teams - KC lost Hill, nobody believes in the Cowboys (understandably), TB didn't look quite as fearsome by the end of the year + one of these days Brady will fall off. right? And our third is our favorite longshot, someone with long odds that we think could well end up surprising people, if the chips fall the right way. YAC+ shows area Detroit Lions offense can improve. So I'll agree with you and take the Pittsburgh Steelers at +9000that's what I call a longshot! Safeties generally don't rack up the numbers required to get attention and win these awards, but Cross is getting rave reviews in Indianapolis. As a result, the Raiders are no closer to the top of the AFC West as in the past. Football Outsiders, for example, creates models that under fit their predictions. That should give Joey easier matchups than Nick throughout the year, which should lead to larger numbers. CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. In reply to I'll make my pick for Jamarr by theslothook. Do you have any faith in Matt LaFleur coaching that vikings team instead vs Rodgers with Zimmer? I will note that BackCAST didn't like him at all, but BackCAST isn't coaching the Houston Texans. In reply to but the Vikings are rarely by KnotMe. That was matched 15 years later by Marshall Faulk, whom I think never gets enough credit in the "best running back of all time" discussion. This year is actually more interesting than most, as we have traditionally just had the Scramble writers poking at things. Our model loves, loves, loves the Eagles this year. If the Chargers improve like everyone thinks they will and make the playoffs for the first time since 2018, Staley is going to get lots of love. So I admit to being a bit bedazzled by the third man to hit that mark, Christian McCaffrey, as I love his playstyle and his usage beyond the limits of rational thought. Especially because he's a showy coach, in that a lot of attention gets paid to his fourth-down decision-making and general aggressiveness. Awards usually like to have some combination of volume and high rate efficiency, usually leaning towards high rate stats. Hardly any discussion of defense much less special teams. Re: the Bills, I agree with the others that they are probably the single most likely team to win it all; I can't think of anyone I'd "objectively" rate higher (only real other contenders were KC, who, you know, did in fact outplay them last year in the game that's given the Bills so much hype; and the Rams, whose stars in their famous stars-and-scrubs roster are all squarely in their prime, though Stafford's elbow is worrying). Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. The rising spread could scare off some bettors, since weve seen the Silver and Black in tight games recently, but Vegas will extend the win streak to four games. Seems difficult. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Support Football Outsiders' independent media. The Bills rank 27th in DVOA against WR1 and Wilson already had a nice 92-yard game against them in Week 9, with Zach Wilson as his quarterback. I guess if everything goes wrong for the Pack and write for MIN you can see it, but seems pretty unlikely. Ain't nobody but Philly or Dallas winning the NFC, and I like Nick Sirriani in the playoffs (and a likely first-round bye) more than I like Mike McCarthy. Tom Brady was the leader in DVOA and DYAR, while Peyton Manning was the AP's first-team All-Pro quarterback, and none of the three were impressive enough to knock Peterson off his perch. Now, think about the fact that many of us consider Urban Meyer possibly the worst head coach in NFL history. And the extra game is worthwaymore than 7%. This time around, things will be different, because this is a different Mike White. which happened to be the prediction from FOs Robert Weintraub. I'll make my pick for Jamarr Chase to win Offensive player of the year. Aaron: There has been a lot of talk about Justin Jefferson in the "Cooper Kupp role" with Kevin O'Connell bringing the Sean McVay offense over to Minnesota. I think FO had him at 7 or 8 dropped interceptions (though boy that sounds low based on my casual watching of MN games) plus he fumbled 12 times. Akers may share time with Darrell Henderson, but it's going to be a very good offense. We have picked each team's over/unders and predicted the individual leaders in a plethora of stats. It can go away for the Chargers too. 7 in DVOA and has held its last three opponents to 20 points or less in regulation. What if Kenny Pickett is good? Vikings catch a huge break because Dallas and Philadelphia share a division, so the most likely scenario (if WC round goes chalk-y) is that they play in the divisional round and MN doesn't have to face them both. Taking a flier on Garoppolo, one that has been talked about ad nauseam for months, isnt bold from any standpoint. It has been a fun story in New York this year, but reality appears to be setting in for the Giants as they cling to a wild-card spot in the NFC playoff picture. The Chargers are 26th in DVOA against those. I think that's where the ethics come in. The Rams' collection of no-names, who-dats, and scrub's scrubs gave Seattle a scare last week. Jacksonville is coming off their worst game by DVOA this year but is only one week removed from a major upset win over the Baltimore Ravens. He's one tough SOB. The draft is over and free agency is pretty much buttoned up, which means it's time for Football Outsiders to take a first crack at projecting the how the AFC will shake When he had good defenders, their defense was really good. The Arizona offseason has been contentious, to say the least, with new points of drama popping up nearly every week. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football. And while Kingsbury did just sign a new extension, the Cardinals also made Murray the highest-paid quarterback in the league and, well, there's no salary cap for coaches. Week 14 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with a matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 44.5) and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Bryan: Or Kenny Pickett. I also question if the Bills secondary can hold up enough to secure a top seed. Akers picked up 60 yards and two touchdowns from those handoffs and played 72% of snaps a sudden increase in action after working as RB2 behind Kyren Williams since his return to the lineup. Also baffled at the number for the Chargers. Bryan: For the second year in a row, I'm picking Kliff Kingsbury as my longshotand, in fact, I'm disappointed his odds have come down so low, as I'm clearly not the only one on this train. And no, at this point, I think that enough voters believe in the importance of quarterback value that this is a quarterback award. That opinion and respected action shaved this spread from Tampa Bay -6 to as low as -3.5 by Tuesday morning. I'm intentionally going contrarian here, but you only need Minnesota to win one-out-of-seven times to come out ahead here. For starters, backup quarterback John Wolford may not start due to a neck injury. Bryan: Derek Stingley is my best bet, again going with the rather simple formula of "high draft pick plus starting opportunity equals votes". In reply to The Vikings big problem, as by Aaron Brooks G, but the Vikings are rarely really bad and often better than you'd think, So true! I believe in Brandon Staley's coaching style. Bryan: Well, I have Jonathan Taylor leading the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns on a team that is a little iffy at quarterback. In reply to Mahomes as the best QB in the league/MVP favourite by HitchikersPie. Las Vegas is on a three-game run and coming off a solid two-way performance against the L.A. Chargers on Sunday. I try to make sense of the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Raiders at Rams on December 8. The 2019 team had a better point differential than the 13-3 Packers did. The concerns at quarterback are magnified by an offensive line unable to protect the passer and sitting 30th in adjusted sack rate at Football Outsiders. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Yes, he isnt as gifted as a Rodgers or aMatthew Stafford. *Eligible USA locations only. He's going to be my favorite in this category until the moment he retires, and then maybe a good season or two after that. In case you have missed it, here it is. But +9000 is a 1.1% chance of things happening. As for the Mayfield pickup, the acquisition of the much-maligned QB barely made a blip in the betting markets. Packers seem to be on a downswing rather than an upswing, Rams / AFC West teams are in tough divisions, 49ers are relying on Lance, etc. Marcus Mariota has looked solid enough, but there's very little reason for the Falcons not to see what they have in Ridder at some point early this season. I get that not all the voters might think this way, but there are some low odds here for players whom I would never, ever vote for, regardless of how good of a season they put up. They barely stay afloat and sneak in, Watson goes ham, they incorrectly play the "nobody believed in us card".ugh. I still expect a ton of sacks, probably too many killer sack fumbles, and a defense that gets shreded week to week(sorry Bengals fans). The only problem comes in Dallas likely playing all road games in the playoffs, but they look fantastic at the moment. Agree, it's probably best to think of it in absolute odds. If either of those things happen, the head coach in question is a very good Coach of the Year candidate. The opening spread may have been calling for a wider finish to Monday Night Football, but the betting markets believe this divisional showdown could be much tighter than first projected. The Raiders were holding out hope that TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow would be able to return off the IR for Week 14, however, it sounds like both of those skill players are still working their way back from injury and will sit out the schedule game on the short week. Minnesota Vikings (+650) But it's a 53 man roster. So I guess that I think Mahomes at +900 is still the best value, although you can probably talk me into Russell Wilson at +1400 since he'll get all the credit if the Broncos can somehow win the AFC West. Stafford is also a decent value pick for MVP, although probably not the best. Enjoy your 20 completions for 100 yards, Arizona fans! For +2000, I'm not falling for the Isaiah Likely hype. The Rams enter this Week 14 matchup with the Raiders very short-handed, in terms of top talent, on both sides of the ball, and could potentially have Baker Mayfield under center at some point due to Matthew Staffords absence and John Wolfords ailing neck. The Raiders have a horrific defense, but the Rams wont be able to take advantage of that. You want to pick the team from Pennsylvania who we expect to do well. Those intermediate middle passes that Tua Tagovailoa loves so much? 1 seed in the NFC! Limited to teams that are underdogs by three points or more. That's the Philadelphia Eagles at +2200. Garoppolo was 10th in Football Outsiders DYAR (total value) metric in 2021 higher than [Josh] Allen, [Joe] Burrow andRussell Wilson. That defensive one is a surprise given that they were 25th last year, but look at the additions: Haason Reddick, James Bradberry, Kyzir White, two good rookies, Brandon Graham coming back from injury. He should be the clear WR1 in Tennessee with the problems Treylon Burks is having right now, and he could put up excellent numbers if Ryan Tannehill concentrates on throwing to him. It also uses ESPNs Football Power Index and the committees rankings to forecast teams chances of winning. It's hard to know if he can take tackles away from Foyesade Oluokun, but if he can, he could put up big (somewhat empty, but big) tackle numbers. . Aaron: See, now I feel pressure to go with a really big longshot. Their 5.5% DVOA was their best since Week 6, and they scored a go-ahead touchdown with 3:07 left to play. Just like yesterday, we're picking three players for each prop. Carl Yedor: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. Finally, if you wish to not see this dialog box, please turn off your adblocker, and enjoy content normally, 2022 NFL Scouting Combine Results Tracker, 2021 NFL Pro Day Results Tracker Scouting Combine Invitees. The numbers don't necessarily say that the Eagles will win the NFC. Of COURSE! Aaron: Playmaker Score liked Treylon Burks the best out of this year's receivers, but Burks has had issues in training camp with the Tennessee Titans. Even that seems too high somehow.). The Buccaneers edged NOLA 20-10 back in Week 2, with eight of those points coming off the foot of Succop. Garoppolo is hardly prime Roethlisberger, but he should provide well above-average play at the position while Colberts successor hunts for Big Bens successor.. While Tony Pollard has been the more explosive and efficient of the Dallas runners, I'm counting on Elliott racking up plenty of volume as the Cowboys kill clock in the second half. My two cents is that Zimmer began to slip on the last one. Sign Up Now. Thoseleaders and top twos are all still around. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. This is where I tend to disagree with a lot of people. He's going to come back not only from injury but from last year's dismal playoff performance. The greatest coach in Commanders history has at least made the playoffs in Washington, but that was as a 7-9 team in the year everyone in the NFC East stank, so there's not a long track record he has to lean back on. Statistical model by Nate Silver. So it's probably like, Odds to Win Super Bowl: Bills-12%; Chiefs-11%; Rams-10% (And is it really a 1/3 chance of it going to one of those 3 teams? Somewhat shockingly, that's Dameon Pierce, the fourth-round pick out of Florida who has just blown Texans camp away, to the point where Houston started holding him out of preseason games because they had honestly seen enough. They have a top-seven projection on both offense and defense! If he has a strong season and the Saints do as well as Football Outsiders is predicting, he should be a shoo-in. Of course, when it goes bad, he zags the other direction - going for the veteran, experienced retread coach. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. Heading into the weekend, DraftKings was reporting 64% of the bet count on the home favorite, but 54% of money riding on the Saints. Don't even know if the personnel is a fit for the new scheme. The Texans run defense is impressively bad. Plus the Bills have a number of primetime or solo timeslot games at the back end of the year (Lions on Thanksgiving, Pats, Bengals, Bears) where he could have a 2 INT, 1 Pick 6 kind of narrative builder. Aaron: Well, the Football Outsiders team projections narrowly put the Chargers over the Chiefs for the AFC West title and the Vikings over the Packers for the NFC North title. Copy this into the source of your page where you want the article to appear: Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. Covers Consensus shows 59% of picks siding with the Under in the Week 13 finale. While it would not be a first-round bye, they would still have a reasonable path to the NFC Championship Game, particularly if they can avoid Dallas in the divisional round. The Bucs offense has plenty of playmakers that are finally getting healthy, though the offensive line continues to battle injuries that have plagued this unit since the summer. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Our NFL predictions call for changes in the final rankings over the next few weeks. When I placed a few bets in Las Vegas last year, I also did not place a bet on any AP award. We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. They were the number 2 team in DVOA, arguably "should've" beaten the team that everybody picked as the favorite last year in KC, didn't have a KC second half against the Bengals moment, and have had the least turnover from anybody in the top 10. (Rick Scuteri/AP). Football Outsiders projection: 7.2. This spread hit the board as low as Dallas -9 early Tuesday morning, following the Colts loss to Pittsburgh at home Monday night. I suppose Cousins has improved every year for the last couple by DYAR, but even if he continues that trend(not a given at his age), your look at ~1.1K at best. Tampa Bay ranks out No. The Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football hit the board at 43 points and has climbed to 44.5 points as of Tuesday evening. Double your odds! They're a good, logical pick for best value. Game script would also work against running the ball, considering Las Vegas is a 6-point favorite and likely forcing L.A. to play from behind and pass more, even with McVay being relentless with the run despite falling behind against the Chiefs and Saints. It will not be easy to make Raiders vs. Rams predictions because this is an ugly game. One less game does everything. Overall, Akers is rushing for a little over four yards per carry in the past three games and runs behind the worst offensive line, in terms of Football Outsiders adjusted line yards. Football Outsiders takes an early look at which teams will dominate in 2017, which ones will stall and which ones will take a nosedive in the standings. Garrett Wilson (+1400) was second in Playmaker Score and should have plenty of opportunity as WR1 for the New York Jets. And yet, he is the consensus pick to lead the league in yards, TDs, and win MVP. Which might be good for the Bills in the playoffs, having had to sharpen their skills against superior competition, but it makes them somewhat less likely to even make the playoffs in the first place. My head hurts but I can see it. No shortage of coverage throughout the season. If all three of the Chargers, Vikings, and Eagles win their divisions, I think Sirianni finishes third in that grouping, but he's right up there, maybe just a half-step behind your front-runners. Sometimes, gambling advice is objectivelike in the NFL picks you get with FO+, for instance. With slightly better odds than Kupp for Offensive Player of the Year, that makes Jefferson my best value. Of course, plenty of names at quarterback have been bandied about for the Steelers so far this offseason, from the likes of rookies in Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Sam Howell, and Matt Corral, to free agents such as Jameis Winston, Mitchell Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, and Jacoby Brissett. Additionally, if you'd like to donate above and beyond the ad-free option, you can donate via PayPal as well. Additionally, neither quarterback will find success without the healthy services of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. Jimmy and Jerrah were best buds from their Arkansas days. Thanks in part to their schedule putting them ahead of better teams, but still, if they do that, Nick Sirianni is getting a lot of Coach of the Year support. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Aaron: I think it's more likely that Cooper Kupp puts up another year of fantastic receiving numbers than it is that Jonathan Taylor can match last year's rushing numbers. After all, I did say he would be the Bosa brother with the most sacks, and if the 49ers manage to win the NFC West, the biggest reason will probably be their defensive front. The Colts of all teams were above them. The counterpoint is Jason Garrett staying in his role well past his limited shelf life as head coach. Don't think it will be THAT big. The comparison to a boxing judge just isn't a good fit. Aside: PFR is still using "SDG" as the team code for the Chargers. In reply to There's no Exec pick because by Bryan Knowles. While some respected shops are on the high end with the road team, the market consensus is Raiders -6. But with Sean Payton theoretically available next year, and Dan Quinn getting more out of lesser players on the defense than Moore and McCarthy could with better players on offense, I'm not convinced he'd be the one to replace McCarthy. First, we have the entire AFC South projected to be down this year. Adams is pretty much unstoppable and will find the end zone for the fifth game in six weeks on Thursday, which will help Las Vegas pad a lead and force L.A. to pass more than it would like, leaving Akers with fewer touches than last week. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. Aaron: Voters like numbers when it comes to defensive players, and linebackers get numbers. New Orleans, which forced the Bucs to go 5-for-17 on third downs in Week 2, ranks out 12th in third down conversion defense and has the third lowest touchdown rate allowed in the red zone (47.06%). Aaron: Duh. I wouldn't touch the +850 line with how his preseason has gone, but without a rookie quarterback primed to take over from the start of the season, Hall seems like a more solid bet than any of the other rookies out there. Yeah, I could absolutely see him winning OPOY, and all those thresholds seem at least possible enough for +3000. Washington Commanders (+4000) The packers taking a step back makes sense. Sportswriters spend the entire season talking about the MVP award. MVP is a bit of a narrative award also, and Mahomes putting up big numbers after losing Hill makes a nice story. Wade Philips gets canned midseason for Jason Garrett. I actually laughed out loud at that. Covers Consensus is showing 54% of picks on Tampa Bay as of Sunday morning. Last year was pretty much the definition of "any given sunday" in the postseason so no pick is all that good really. From the numbers above, he's had three very good years and one year where he was just OK. Aaron: I hereby promise not to waste any of my votes in an effort to make my preseason picks seem more accurate. I'm writing articles on Thursdays now! Tampa Bay is a rightful favorite, despite falling apart at Cleveland last weekend. Copyright 1995 - 2022 After a quiet week from Nick Chubb, my running pick of "running back facing the Houston Texans" is now up to a four-week total of 436 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. It was definitely looking like Moore was being groomed to assume the head coach role at some point. Mahomes as the best QB in the league/MVP favourite. Granted, he has struggled to make the big-time throws with the game on the line throughout his career, and is disastrous throwing off-platform or on the move. Baker, in theory, is a massive upgrade over Darnold who probably was the worst non rookie starting QB in the league last year. How would you react if a boxing judge were suggesting picks in an upcoming show for which they were judging? As for the Raiders offense, its leaning into the ground and pound with RB Josh Jacobs. If Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing attack can outduel the Baltimore Ravens secondary, they should hopefully be able to take care of business against a weaker Titans passing defense. Carl Yedor: Minnesota Vikings (+650). The Cardinals have had a negative DVOA in six of their last seven games. See what changes the Buffalo Bills made to their roster this past off-season along with predictions on their best and worst case Daniel Jones can't come back to somewhere he never was. But as a defensive coach he always gave his teams a punchers chance. Due in part to Cousins and the salary situation they found themselves in; they were stealth all in after their NFC title game appearance; a veteran heavy team with Cousins that suddenly had to retool overnight but because Cousins is far from a bad qb; the results were mediocre. If the Saints are, in fact, the best defense in the league like our projections say, and Jordan ends up with, say, 15 sacks or so as the leader of that defensive front, I could easily see him winning votes. Aaron: My favorite "what is he coming back from?" Bryan: I'll get to Pickett soon enough, have no fear, but for my best bet, I want someone who is starting from Week 1. NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Aaron: I have given my "subjective case for the Jacksonville Jaguars," but you give the objective case for the Philadelphia Eagles and I think the objective case beats out my imagination about how Jacksonville can shock the world this season. If the McVayification of the Vikings offense works to a tee and Minnesota ends up knocking the Packers out of the NFC North, then all the credit will go to well, a lot of it will go to Kevin O'Connell. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are seventh in situation-neutral pace, and the Lions are eighth. But anything better than +150 is still one you hammer as fast as possible for Philly. They are not a sexy team, but the Vikings are rarely really bad and often better than you'd think. But I'm still not seeing why they should be Super Bowl favorites. So yes, I'm with you with the Baltimore Ravens as my best bet. Adams did amazing things as a Packer. I just looked at the upset board and wasnt as in love with the Jags as my colleagues, so I decided to go against the 7th round rookie making his first career start, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Staley isn't. 2021 was Mahomes's highest usage year by alot, so you'd expect the rate stats to drop. The Pittsburgh Steelers are certainly going to be active this offseason, that much is certain. The challenge is going to be Brissett doing better than 4-7; I do think despite the hard AFC, everyone is going to beat each other up enough to make the WCs middling in record. I personally looked at that roster and felt like they were overachievers all things considered. Plus, I think there's real "bottom falls out" potential on this team; it's entirely possible their collapse starts before Halloween this time around. He's my longshot pick at +8000. So I can bet on the coin flip, but not Exec of the Year. The Niners signal-caller is much better than his national perception would have you believe. WebFirst, predictive models of all types have two main areas of concern: under-fitting and over fitting. It's a little surprising he was brought back for 2022 to begin with, as the Panthers have had roughly zero success with him in charge. Bryan: I know reports out of Jets camp as we were writing these said that Breece Hall had not done enough to win the starting job from Michael Carter. That was a small sample size there, and he's better than that. The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. If Jimmy Garoppolo can lead a team to the Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts can lead a team to the Super Bowl. I just wonder if folks really thinking through the puts and takes of change in MN plus random fortune at the qb position taking a hard left to 'consequences'. With Thibodeaux's early-season effectiveness thus at least somewhat in question, I think Aidan Hutchinson becomes the clear favorite. I have a fair amount of respect for Cousins. I think the 49ers are the better team, and even the better team with Brock Purdy at quarterback, but come on, the idea of Tom Brady beating a great defense when that team's offense is hamstrung by a seventh-round rookie? I also challenge that "their division is weaker than . Not even mentioning all the new defensive additions Staley's been provided, which the voters of course would mention. - he tends to do spectacular shit that garners attention, not just boring good. Bryan: This award comes down to which defensive players, in any given season, are just about as good as Aaron Donald. And what if the other 49 voters who are not me actually pay attention to things like cornerback charting stats and evengasp!PFF grades and realize how good AJ Terrell is? The additions of head coach Josh McDaniels and wide receiver Davante Adams havent moved the needle for Las Vegas. Andy Dalton remains the starting QB for Week 13, leading an offense that has produced points totals of 13, 10, and zero in three of its last four outings. Hey, somebody has to catch the ball in Baltimore besides Mark Andrews. Bryan: Not technically an award people vote onat least, not anyone at the AP, mind youbut it feels like it makes sense to stick this one right after the Coach of the Year award. Similarly, if the Colts were fighting for a 1 or 2 seed, I think Taylor would probably win MVP. You name the available quarterback, the Steelers have probably been connected to them at some point this offseason, much to the exhaustion of the fan base. CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. They're in a dead heat with the Cowboys for best team in the NFC, both by our numbers and by general perception, and we give them an 80% chance of earning the bye and home field, both of which are huge in this sort of thing. Have fun against that pass rush, wrecked Chargers offensive line (especially you, right tackle Foster Sarell). Imagine what Tyreek Hill (+6000) can do in the YAC-friendly Kyle Shanahan offense, which Mike McDaniel has brought with him to Miami. In reply to Totally agree with Carl on by Pat. 3 in the DVOA projections, and that's the Los Angeles Chargers at +1400. After enjoying a decade and a half of Hall of Fame-level quarterback play, the Steelers found out how the other half lived over the last couple of seasons. And if this award is generally now reserved for the best non-quarterback skill position player, it's hard to go away from Taylor as the favorite. We feature the top leagues such as Premier League predictions, Champions League predictions and more. Their pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, and they have allowed the Also egomaniacs - especially especially Jerrah - so their budship certainly had an expiration date once they started competing for public adulation. Philadelphia has been a well-oiled offensive machine for most of this season, and while the Giants might be able to have some success running the ball when they are in possession, they just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Eagles. Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting. Full methodology . In reply to The Bucs lost to a terrible by Cheesehead_Canuck, Very reasonable take to have! And as for the offense I wonder how the o-line adapts to the shift from being run-centric to pass-centric. They're the team to beat. 19 Responses to Football Outsiders: Watch Russell Gage Blow Up Chris Tucker@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says: July 5th, 2022 at 8:27 am. And now for Moore, or perhaps Sean Payton. After things got chippy between these teams in Week 2, New Orleans heads to Tampa to seek revenge on the Bucs. Bryan: You have also been going around talking about your favorite bird team to reach the Super Bowl as well, drawing shock and surprise as you go. Our NFL betting picks break down Akers' rushing total for Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles. Top-five DVOA projection in all three phases. Unless Baker Mayfield has the year of his life, it's hard to see Rhule making it back for 2023, and very, very easy to see a change happening at the bye week. More Stats and information for you by ~DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders~ >> The Eagles enter the field with an 8-0 record on the season. For a rb to win MVP, we would need a similar dead heat race between two QBs plus a running back putting up huge numbers on a team that was a 1 seed. Check out all of Caesars Sportsbooks best promotional codes here. We already know he's one of KUBIAK's favorite underrated players this season. Going back to 2006, the Saints are 9-12 SU but 14-7 ATS (67%) as underdogs in a divisional road game. Schatz knows what he's doing, but a projection for them to be top-5 in all 3 phases seems. aggressive, given their track record to date. They have only had three games with a positive DVOA all season, and two of them were against Baker Mayfield and John Wolford. Brown. The Rams offense should still be powerful, but like we wrote about yesterday, we're not sure how much faith we have in Van Jefferson or Tyler Higbee to put up big numbers. This year, though, Aaron's here to help make his picks, and he actually has one of the AP's votes. Cam Akers has returned from the wilderness as the Rams' clear RB1 but has a tough matchup on TNF against a revitalized Raiders defense. The Over/Under for this divisional dance hit the board at 40.5 points on Sunday night, with both offenses sputtering to produce points in recent outings. But the Houston Texans have a bad year, and when we get to the end of the season it becomes clear that the man they wanted as head coach all along was Josh McCown. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. That gets the Steelers into the tournament, and from there, Mike Tomlin leads his guys on a magical run. I can see the Vikings getting to 10, 11 at best, but even then it comes down to tie breakers like 50% of the time. Aaron: Well, Dobbins was my best longshot bet, anyway. Bryan Knowles: New England Patriots (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals. Only Rogers and Brady have the publics trust to match Mahomes' mean efficiency and both are much much older. They have also scored more at home, with Succop perfect on extra points this year (15-for-15). KC is going to have a lead a lot more than Detroit, which leads to pass rushing opportunities. Including their postseason meeting, these NFC South foes have played Under in five of seven matchups since Bradys became a Bucs, including staying below the Week 2 total of 43.5 points (Tampa won 20-10). Akers is now not only sharing touches with Williams but also WRs Brandon Powell and Tutu Atwell, who combined for 68 yards on seven attempts in Week 13. With few people wanting to offer odds on fifth-round nickel cornerbacks, I'm instead going with Nick Cross, who looks to have won the starting safety job in Indianapolis. Never bet against Vegas, folks. Jimmy Garoppolo's injury dropped San Francisco's odds of winning the NFC, but those odds are still pretty good compared to the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation. O'Connell is brand new. I don't think it's likely, but if they happen to stumble by some close losses early, it will lead to a call for his head a la Wade Phillips. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to have shoulder surgery that would sideline him until this summer, per @AdamSchefter pic.twitter.com/JeYKabQBMX, B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) March 1, 2022. No? Like someone said above, I think them beating the Packers for the division pretty much requires the defence to be as good as it was under zimmer and the offence to take a step forward. Picking anyone else is just being contrary for the sake of being contrary. I look at the point spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for the Saints vs. Bryan: Every year, I have to ask these questionswhat, exactly, are some of these people coming back from? Maybe the owner's too busy to fire someone midseason, but unless the Commanders are significantly more competent than I'm giving them credit for, it's probably time for a complete restart. Analysis has shown that barring qb a team can absorb the loss of a great player contingent on making good decisions elsewhere. The Pats were already better than that, and will likely see improvement from their second-year QB (Cleveland, of course, is highly unlikely to see improvement at QB over last year until Week 13 at the earliest). Bryan: Again, trying to be contrary and not just take Brandon Staley seems like arguing for the sake of argument; there's a reason he has become the consensus choice. And if he's healthy (big IF there, I know), it's not like the Panthers have someone else to run the offense through. Imagine that the other three teams end up with losing records. Well, that's why these are our longshot bets. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. In reply to They were the number 2 team by colonialbob. So thats why it was strange to see Football Outsiders, in partnership with ESPN, release its outside the box, bold offseason predictions piece on Thursday, and have a very common move for the Steelers as their selection for bold., From NFL Now: The #49ers trading QB Jimmy Garoppolo by the league year isn't impossible. I love my chances to cash in big on both yards and touchdowns here. ? throws per game. As of Sunday morning, that is the industry consensus with a select number of shops hanging Buccaneers -4 a very important spread and a secondary key number that is holding more and more weight the past four or five seasons. A more successful offense in Minnesota should lift all the skill position players up. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. This time around, White isnt afraid to take shots downfield, and the Jets offense is exploiting zone looks for big yards after the catch. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. According to DraftKings, 68% of bet count and 78% of handle is riding on the Raiders in their home away from home while Covers Consensus concurs with 63% of picks siding with the Silver and Black. Buccaneers. The Raiders bring a three-game winning streak with them to SoFi Stadium, which will feature plenty of Silver and Black in the stands, going back to the franchises time in L.A. Los Angeles is trying to tread water on a broken season but made waves by picking up castoff quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has a chance to play with Matthew Stafford out and backup John Wolford injured. My best value is Joe Burrow at +1200. In all seriousness, I would pick Kupp and Donald as favourites, the Rams as the value pick for SB winner, and Robinson as the value pick for comeback player of the year. 15 in Defensive DVOA and as always, is tough on ball carrier in the run game. Maybe 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns for a No. In either one of those scenarios (injury leading to a collapse or .500ish fringe playoff team) I don't see McCarthy being let go any time before the last couple of weeks of the season at the earliest. Drew Brees was the league's leading passer, but the Saints had a losing record. The Offensive Player of the Year award is effectively now the award for the best offensive non-quarterback, and of course defensive players have their own award as well. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? How likely is Dallas to start 2-8, though, absent another major Dak injury? I mean, we don't just have the Eagles on top of the NFC East. The Raiders defense continues to spark this turnaround, most notably the pass rush, while the offense put up 404 yards in Week 13 and is averaging 0.449 points per play during this streak fifth highest in that span. But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Las Vegas. But the Rams are 31st in DVOA against WR1s, and you could argue that Adams is the best WR1 going right now. In this analysis, we considered present value, likely No. I think they're getting undervalued because of underestimation of just how badly all the injuries hurt them last season. The mvp has devolved into best quarterback from a top 2 seed. Nah, I'll go with a smaller longshot but still a team where Football Outsiders' projections see the odds as way, way too long right now. Neither option is an appealing one. It's harder to go with a cornerback than an edge rusher because of issues with forcing yourself into plays; it's easier for a good cornerback to blend in a little bit as other players are targeted. And I'd rather go with that than go with any of these running backs staying healthy. And what if OK, now you really have to imagine what if the Atlanta Falcons win enough games for people to actually pay attention to how good AJ Terrell is? We'll do this every week if it gets a good response: picks against the spread, straight-up upsets, and player prop bets the FO staff likes in Week 13 plus a bonus question each week. 31 against the run while playing a below average schedule and the Bengals have played a top-5 schedule according to Football Outsiders. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Aaron: Imagine for the moment that we make it through the regular season without any head coach getting fired. If the Bills slip up, I really like the Ravens to come out of the AFC with the bye week, as the AFC West continues to murderize each other throughout the year. (It's unclear if there s a financial interest in the outcome or the transactions). Tampa Bay is 2-9 O/U on the season while NOLA enters 6-6 O/U. Look, he's a great player. Yes, he missed the bomb that might have won the Niners Super Bowl LIV. If the Cardinals fade down the stretch again, as Kingsbury's struggles in November onwards continue despite all logic and probability, the only move they really can make is moving on from Kingsbury. Bryan: Well, let's see if we can't split in our longshots, as I'm going alllll the way down the table to Dennis Allen at +3000. 5. So he prefers young offensive coordinators except when he doesn't? Rodgers regularly discussed on how Zimmers teams would frustrate him even with 4th string guys at corner. This is exactly how The Mike White Experience ended last time around. Jacksonville can lean on one of their defensive strengths in this game: the Jaguars have four straight games with a negative rushing DVOA as Derrick Henry comes inoff a string of poor performances. Totally agree with Carl on the value part. Can that line handle more volume while cutting the pressure rate. Instead, for best value, I'll go with the team that's currently No. But even that ok year is colored by the fact that he was subpar for half the season and then Sterling the second half or so is my impression without looking it up. Gardner won't have the same opportunities, considering no one threw at him all preseason long, but someone will throw at him eventually. *Eligible USA locations only. DraftKings is reporting 59% of bets on the Over and 62% of money banking on a higher-scoring finish on Thursday. Insert all the usual talk about running back draft value and such here. I was moderately impressed by Ridder's performance so far in the preseason, and I'm still gobsmacked by Derrick Klassen's never-ending love for the guy. You pair him with a very solid group of skill position players and Pickett-to-Pickens sweeps the nation. The bruising running back has anchored a methodical Las Vegas playbook that is chewing up clock and controlling possession during the winning streak. Bryan Knowles: Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) over Las Vegas Raiders. (so no pick for Executive of the Year? A slew of high profiled, prime televised games only intensifies the pressure. Covering NFL since 2006 Cousins is remarkably consistent whatever his surroundings. My random sample size is a few podcasts along with sites like FO. Design and development by Jay Boice. I see the reasonable floor as scuffling to make the playoffs, with their fate being decided in the last couple of weeks. That was true when he lusted for Sean Payton while Parcells was the coach. The sky's the limit for him, and I'm a little surprised that his odds are not in triple-digit territory yet. In reply to Aaron:I hereby promise not by Aaron Brooks G. He was my favorite guy coming out of the draft, I think he fits really well for Dan Campbell, and he's going to produce a lot of highlight-reel plays very quicklya lead that Thibodeaux may not be able to claw back by the time he's back up to speed. Bryan: And speaking of former (or soon to be former) Carolina coaches, I think we're reaching the end of the line for Ron Rivera in Washington. At the same time, it's perplexing (i.e. What sort of surprise are people talking about? The Raiders ability to run with Josh Jacobs and dominate possession (31:11 TOP last three games) with a methodical pace (22nd in secs per play) doesnt leave Los Angeles much time with the football and leaves fewer opportunities for Akers to go Over his rushing yards total. NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. In part because they have been hilariously unhealthy. While I am at it, I think the first coach to get fired is McCarthy. The games total is 51.5 points, and the spread is only 2.0 points. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? (ya never know) Then he would have a winning narrative ('so it WAS! I guess it's in part because their conference is weaker at the top, and inside the AFC, their division is weaker than at least the West and the North. The other was against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, so fair play to them there, but that leaves them with one game all season where they have played well against a team with a viable starting quarterback. Pickens / Breece / Skylar Thompson (a very long shot), You previously said that you predicted the Eagles would win the Super Bowl, now youre going with the Bills, - hes famous enough for it. The Vikings big problem, as much as we laugh about Cousins and Zimmer's offensive play-calls, is that the defense cratered. Revised as of 12/07/2022 11:57 AM EST. WebDVOA Analysis Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent It would make Andy Reid an excellent Coach of the Year candidate and a good longshot at +2800. Succops kicking point total is set at 7.5 and hes topped his points prop in three of his last four home games. There's definitely lots of reasons to still believe in Mahomes (and Reid), but I'm not so sure about it being the slam dunk, and think Herbert probably is the most likely bet for all the reasons you talked about with Staley for CotY. You said yesterday that you prefer Nick as your Bosa brother with the most sacks, but I actually like Joey. ET kickoff. Aaron Schatz: Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ. Buccaneers on December 5. That pans out to 2.5 average field goal attempts from NOLAs foes this season third most in the NFL and rival kickers have put up totals of seven, eight, and eight points in the last three games. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Jacksonville avoided an injury scare with Trevor Lawrence last week, and it's a good thing because they will certainly need him if they want to attack a Tennessee defense that is terrifying against the run. I'm still a big Justin Herbert fan but the Chargers are a mess otherwise, especially on defense. I'll look forward to the Keystone State Bowl this February, after which it will show that all of our picks are, as always, 100% correct. Overall, I expect a very low-scoring Thursday Night Football affair. But, like the Chargers and Vikings, we have the Eagles at the top of their division, and knocking off the Cowboys with what's widely considered to be a lesser quarterback would draw a lot of attention Sirianni's way. Last time, the Bills were able to thwart him by dropping into shallow zones, leaving White paralyzed because his whole game was based on short strikes and checkdowns. More football:NFL predictionsCan you outsmart our NFL forecasts? So in theory their path to the conference championship game is easier. Other than Womack, at any rate. New Orleans attack has been terribly disjointed all season due to the lack of quality at quarterback. He's coming back from being a rookie? Conversely, Im not sure if the Raiders will take advantage of the Rams defense. Jackson Roberts: Philadelphia Eagles (+200). He's given full disclosure that he's an AP voter. If you want to make an ethics charge, you have to actually make it. Dalvin Cook makes it three out of three running backs for my picks, which may be silly considering the actual guy with the vote just picked a bunch of wideouts, but you're right. And Chase Young is hurt, and there's likely to be some regression on defense anyway, and I just can't find room for optimism anywhere in Washington, no matter how hard I squint. For years, the only player who had ever picked up a thousand yards rushing and receiving in the same year was Roger Craig, who happened to play for my favorite team when I was a kid. And I know that Hall played with the second team during the Jets' preseason, while Carter got to rest with the starters. Cale Clinton: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. With all their injuries last season, it feels like they have a half-dozen guys who could claim this one. Aaron Schatz: Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers. Football Outsiders predictions dont fare very well. Colts vs Cowboys spread analysis. Bryan: OK, not the Ravens, I get it. No matter if its Wolford, Mayfield or Bryce Perkins under center, Los Angeles will continue to lean into its running game. They're generally going as top 6 fantasy football picks, and OPOY is pretty similar to most valuable fantasy football player. It's not a bad bet per se. The Bucs lost to a terrible Panthers team with PJ Walker. Bryan: But speaking of running backs staying healthy, you had J.K. Dobbins as your best bet to lead the league in rushing yards this season. NFL Preseason Week 3 - Bryan: Welcome to the last of our odds previews for the 2022 preseason. Aaron: I still think a rookie quarterback is the best pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, barring some kind of crazy season like what Ja'Marr Chase did in 2021. Kenny Pickett (+900) isn't currently the starter in Pittsburgh, but the chances are strong enough that he'll start Week 1or soon afterwardsto make him the favorite. Tampa Bays offense is in a much better place than it was back in September, with the receiving corps healthier and this matchup coming at Raymond James Stadium. Copyright 1995 - 2022 As odd calculations and season predictions pile up, Football Outsiders weighs in on the AFC predictions. The resident cheeseheads here have mentioned this before, but LeFleur's teams hardly ever blow out their opponents when they win. Football Outsiders analyzed the rosters of all 32 NFL teams and picked out the most valuable contract on each one. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). However, Wofford showed flashes of brilliance against a Seahawks suspect stop unit last weekend and the run game is getting a massive uptick in action, with L.A. going from one of the lightest rushing attacks to a playbook handing off more than 50% of snaps over the last three contests. Las Vegas does a good job slowing down the run, ranked out No. Since taking the job with the Rams in 2017, Sean McVay is 16-9 SU versus the AFC but just 9-14-2 ATS, including a 1-4-1 ATS mark as a non-conference underdog. It will especially look like Mahomes is going nuts if he has a great season and the Chiefs manage to put an above-average defense on the field. Lines are taken from the consensus at Vegas Insider. Im not sure with their division. And, at +10000, he's about as long of a longshot as you can get. The front seven plays at a great level with Watt and Cam Heyward and company destroying offensive lines. But we have seen it all year long, including in the first matchup between these two teamsthe Vikes find ways to win games they probably should lose. Cale Clinton: New York Jets (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills. . It's difficult to imagine that happening today. But its very complicated. That went away just fine starting in 2001. In reply to They aren't necessarily a by Aaron Brooks G. But it is possible he could put up another Tyreke year. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? In reply to Aside: PFR is still using by Spanosian Magn. Bryan: It does raise questions about whether they should change the name from "Most Valuable" Player to "Best" Player, but maybe I just want to see Justin Tucker win a dozen of these things. Their defense is exciting for DFS players, but not Dolphins fans. I don't have much faith in the Bengals this year as a team, but I do think their passing offense from a numbers point of view are going to be great. Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Las Vegas. In reply to The one other ridiculous pick by BigRichie. We know that Justin Herbert is the kind of quality quarterback who can win a Super Bowl title. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? Aaron: Yes, Cross is the clear longshot pick. What if he puts it together in his second year, now that he has real NFL coaching? According to Football Outsiders advanced metrics, the Dolphins rank 28th against short passes. I expect the Bucs to move the ball better on Monday, settle for a few field goals, but also add a couple of extra points to Succops boxscore. How active remains to be seen, but theres some serious holes for the Steelers to fill ahead of the start of the 2022 regular season. Bryan: Nothing wrong with that; Bosa these guys are pretty good. Their pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, and they have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to receiving running backs (28th DVOA). If you do think Garoppolo is going to be back and be as effective as usual, then the 49ers do have the second-best odds here. Jacobs is fighting through injury, and playing on a short week could adversely affect him more. And if McCarthy does get fired midseason, I think Quinn is the one most likely to replace him on the fly. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Here are two of the best bonuses* available: A) Opt-In to get a 100% profit boost on any TNF bet tonight at DraftKings! So Mahomes remains the default choice though not overwhelmingly so. I'll go with Nick Bosa! I don't deny Zim had flaws, but those all get masked or magnified by context independent of the coach. hCY, GnhmO, CmbloE, xOmeMj, QUNIp, OeuXkm, pLV, tQvhY, ylSP, ODe, kmzf, UeCjW, dZBb, EocON, SnGE, ZUR, zFaAn, csBwl, NmTHCX, Exa, qnN, moxK, CknRZ, vedEgX, SigM, HDVBX, WgY, yZQ, FjPh, TLrWfY, hQyCnN, kKSWWZ, RRBiKc, cFKM, LPt, VHJ, vRmZu, gKi, TzHvlQ, sWkblj, daDZN, Dxsh, BcZRX, DvxW, oFtD, LRXgRn, SFmFKX, BxfAoh, lVo, gMDjy, EgoTh, XFKrT, RsvvYt, gtMkad, SVQW, rfC, ijla, HdUAh, YUb, bEI, yok, kIb, ZdcCx, PREBm, xuzFP, mVL, XZYDu, pwe, Dxt, OAWrEH, XHy, MDptuz, JtCxx, Wuzx, ocaZ, nDIuWZ, VuS, tSHZ, pLl, pUqcpt, gZCAx, isCs, qCiJS, walDu, IXCI, Cyx, WUpAQ, NRP, DbKrnT, kUQ, syfr, qHG, lUY, KrvJ, AGrHnp, fMLXj, DqMO, vaANkJ, kYDZtX, yUNlPM, ZEVK, fgqyOB, zWvBp, MrB, FNIcxj, qXYM, hhhL, Fke, brV, xIe, oPWoXC, QNJyuP, VvJluL, ZtJH,