It was the same this year in 2022 at home. 1 Georgia (-7) vs. No. Take an offense that relies on the more time consuming run, and a defense that can't stop the time consuming run and you get this team. 1 target is covered, he has issues working through his progressions. I'm with you, life has really gotten in the way of me watching the games live and commenting here, but when I've watched replays it's just been so meh. The 49ers offense looks better if you take out the Week 1 game played in a monsoon against the Bears with Trey Lance at quarterback instead of Jimmy Garoppolo. Week 14 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with a matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 44.5) and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. I wish I could find the reference for unbalanced teams (it was mentioned recently IIRC, but search failed me), but the pats -19.7%(1) defense and -12.8%(26) offence combo, while not quite historic, the 32.5% DVOA difference was pretty up there. TCU vs. Michigan Prediction: 35-20 Michigan Wolverines. They entered today with a 74.6% chance at the postseason by Football Outsiders' playoff odds report, and odds are that number is only going to go up. Ohio State was listed as the third favorite to win the College Football Playoff before the Pac-12 Championship Game at +800. The five teams that have faced the easiest schedules of offenses so far (Eagles, Raiders, Jaguars, 49ers, Titans) have schedules the rest of the way that rank somewhere between 10th and 18th. Ohio State did not go to the Big Ten Championship after losing to Michigan in the regular season finale at home. So let's do that and take a look. BREAKING: The four Heisman finalists have been announced.-Caleb Williams-Max Duggan-CJ Stroud-Stetson Bennett pic.twitter.com/rVE7bDrHWG. Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie. In fact, the Cowboys are now No. is way better than this. NFL Week 14 - With five weeks to go, all 14 playoff spots are still up for grabs. Jacobs' props are 89.5 rushing yards and 20.5 receiving yards, while Adams . The Vikings have reached shoo-in status to win the NFC North, which would be their first such achievement since . It should go without saying that Tomlin would scoff at Football Outsiders' futile attempts at calculating playoff odds two games into the season, and nobody would judge you if you chose to do so . About these numbers: Each week, from now until the end of the regular season, we'll be taking a look at the projected playoff field based on the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that . Here's a look at some other teams on the extremes or about to have a real change in the quality of their opponents on one side of the ball or the other: The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year. The College Football Playoff betting odds were definitely interesting last week. TCU is off the map on the College Football Playoff odds board at +1600. In reply to To be fair, I am over 50 by Bryan Knowles. Here are the Packers' playoff odds from various sites: FiveThirtyEight: 6 percent Football Outsiders: 8.6 percent New York Times: 11 percent ESPN FPI: 5.0 percent Playoff Status: 3.0. Not hard to imagine the Giants losing out the rest of the way with their schedule, but I can imagine the Lions at 8-9. For our look at remaining defensive schedules, I took out Week 18 because I know that a lot of readers will be curious about the fantasy football implications here. Mayfield rallied the Fertitta Entertainment has closed its acquisition of Wildwood Casino in Cripple Creek, Colorado. Until then, the Vikings deserve to be lampooned as the ultimate paper tiger, In reply to It would be so funny if they by riri. The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. 4 Ohio StateNo. After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. I think this team has a floor of 2-4 to finish the season and a ceiling of 6-0. However, the biggest concern for TCU has to be how to stop Donovan Edwards. The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. Jacobs (+1800) and Adams (+5000) also have the seventh- and eighth-shortest odds to win Offensive Player of Year. Clemson vs North Carolina College Football Betting Picks and Odds. The Minnesota Vikings (10-2) visit the Detroit Lions (5-7) on Sunday. We went over the Chargers already but a number of other teams see their schedule of opposing run defenses get much harder from here on out. The Trojans were in control with a 17-3 before Williams came up lame and limping. Brown. This week's match up against the Bills is going to be tough, but after that they have Jacksonville, the Jets and Carolina, as well as one game remaining with each of their divisional opponents. The oddsmakers view the matchup between the Bulldogs and Buckeyes as the closer of the two games. They pulled away for a 43-22 win on the legs of Donovan Edwards. 3 TCU. USC was going to the College Football Playoff. Per Football Outsiders, a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (-3) in Week 7 sliced the Niners' chances of making the playoffs by 20.9 percent. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. The Raiders (5-7) have won three . 1:54 pm ET, College football bowl odds, picks, computer sims, 2022-23 bowl confidence pool picks, predictions, Top bowl confidence pool picks, predictions for 2022-23, USC QB Caleb Williams wins 2022 Heisman Trophy, Eli Drinkwitz trolls Kansas over NCAA investigation, 2022 CFP odds: Georgia, Michigan open as favorites, USC's Caleb Williams wins 2022 Heisman Trophy, Stanford hires Sacramento State coach Troy Taylor, Bobby Petrino emerging as candidate for TAMU OC job, Michigan mourns death of honoree Dametrius Walker, Report: WAC, ASUN merge in attempt to form FBS league, 2022 awards: USC's Caleb Williams shines as big winner, Rueben Owens, No. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. As for this division, the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation actually has Seattle as a small favorite to win the NFC West right now, so I'm definitely not taking the 49ers at -220. Another big winner for Week 11 was the Dallas Cowboys, with 73.5% DVOA for a 40-3 stomping of the Minnesota Vikings. San Francisco is currently 11th on offense and seventh on defense. Detroit's loss on Monday night was devastating, as . USC was going to the College Football Playoff. The Minnesota Vikings are dominating the NFC North and they can clinch the division title in Week 14 with a win or tie. They are outsiders without much confidence behind the Horned Frogs. Perhaps this is somewhat related to the astounding dissonance between conventional passer rating (104.6) and QBR (20.4) for Mac Jones. However, it's also possible to split up remaining schedules by offense and defense or pass and run to see which teams and units might look better or worse over the rest of the season thanks to who's on the other side of the field. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. I did not expect the gap to be THAT big. Reaching the Conference Championship Game. Without that game, the 49ers have 13.6% offensive DVOA which would rank seventh in the league. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Georgia beat Michigan and then Alabama in the 2021-22 CFP Championship last year. 1 seed, and a much slimmer possibility they slip to a lower Wild Card slot. The 2022-23 College Football Playoff picture is complete after a thrilling weekend of conference championship football. Cine was injured, but couldn't get on the field before the injury, Booth looks horrendous, and the only drafted player getting any playing time, Ingram (G) is really bad. . The Bulldogs are currently -135 to win the college football championship. Except for the Chargers, who we already covered above, the changes aren't as large when it comes to the quality of offenses faced. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. Check out our Saints vs. Betting analyst Brandon Anderson makes his early picks for the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs below. Can we get a historical list of where the worst 8-2 teams ranked by DVOA? I'm hesitant to keep running these in the main commentary because it's a lot of the same teams every week. They had better National Championship odds than USC, who was not considered a CFP team according to those odds. Some of it is opponent-adjustment boosts. Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Yikes. And yet the Buckeyes are a one-touchdown dog. It was revealed that Williams suffered a severe hamstring. Fields ate them for lunch on 3rd down scrambles, and Allen is likely to do the same in their upcoming games against BUF, both of which they'll likely be trounced in. New England enters Week 14 with a 5-7 O/U mark on the year, including 3-3 O/U on the road. San Francisco gets 81.9% DVOA for its 38-10 Monday night dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals. Ohio State vs. Georgia Prediction: 38-28 Georgia Bulldogs. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Thanks for posting, I definitely find these weekly updates interesting. 2? On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. Oddsmakers clearly think that this will be semifinal that isn't that competitive -- something that has happened quite often in the CFP era. The 12 teams each year will include six conference champions -- that means at least one Group of 5 team gets in -- and then the next six at-large teams. Let's start with the obvious big wins. Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. Certainly not the Alabama Crimson Tide. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation. The 97 team had a miracle win against the Giants in the playoffs, and then got pounded the next week in SF (the Viking way after every miracle - immediately squash any sense of hope a fan might have). Heisman Trophy favorite, Caleb Williams, tore his hamstring on a long run early in the game. Sign up for our news letter today! Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne. It's possible that the Jets just had a bad game and only scored 3 points (and two yards of net offense in the second half) despite averaging 20 points a game. 28 schedule the rest of the way, much easier. Current record: 12-3 | Weighted DVOA: 35.8 percent (1) Clinched playoffs | Super Bowl odds: 25.9 percent NFL Week 13 - Following a series of free agency visits, there is now speculation as to whether wide receiver Odell Beckham jr. will be able to make an impact on the . That said, Tampa Bay's playbook is terribly inefficient despite that pace, ranked 21st in EPA per play. Worcester, MA. The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings . The Pac-12 Championship Game on Conference Championship Saturday in College Football looks and feels like points are on the board for the College Football underdogs, who wind We resume our college football over under bets in Week 13. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 13 weeks of 2022, . GB is 17th in pass VOA, and 13 in rush VOA. document.getElementById( "ak_js" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. According to Football Outsiders playoff simulations which penalize the 49ers from Weeks 4-7 for Trent Williams' injury San Francisco has a 48.9% chance to make the playoffs and a 31.7%. In reply to "The New York Jets have by wooten1283. Expect the defensive pressure to get to Stroud, as well. From Week 12 to 17, they face the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses. If you like Georgia, getting on them now before the Peach Bowl is advised. Stetson Bennett should have his usual steady performance. December 06, 4:02 pm ET. At +275, Michigan is the second favorite to win the College Football Playoff. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. I'd argue the D should be even better considering some of the names they have, but Joe Barry is excelling in having them perform as lesser than the sum of their parts. This comes with one last game before the NFL trade deadline on Nov. 2 . NFL Picks | Football Outsiders NFL Picks Week 14 Revised as of 12/07/2022 11:57 AM EST Confidence goes from 1 (most confidence) to 16 (least confidence). Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Indianapolis DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Matt Ryan. Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 46.3% chance of securing the No. While you're at it, you can get a seven-day trial of FO+ and check out the FO+ features like a deeper DVOA database, weekly fantasy projections, fantasy football research tools, Derrik Klassen's All-32 game preview column, and picks against the spread (now including projected totals for over/unders). Last week, FiveThirty pegged Minnesota as the NFL's 10th-best team. The playoffs will expand to a 12-team format beginning in 2024-25. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the mean DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. It also uses ESPN's Football Power Index and the committee's rankings to forecast teams' chances of winning. The Bucs' chances of the playoffs fell 15 percent after losing to the Crows and seeing the Dixie Chicks win. 6-keys: media/spln/collegefootball/reg/free/stories, at They. Michigan is a juggernaut, though. The one team they play which is significantly better against the pass is Denver in Week 18 (4/18), which won't matter if you have Justin Herbert or Austin Ekeler in the fantasy playoffs. That puts them ahead of playoff hopeful teams like the Commanders (17th . This is not a suggestion to pick up Zach Wilson in fantasy football, but you will notice he's got a huge gap between his passing DYAR and YAR on our passing stats page. What can we expect from Stroud against Georgia? The Bears got a bump in their odds (+5.8%) after the victory over the Lions on Sunday. Welcome to the Schatz & Tanier show for NFL Week 14! If you suck at drafting, there's little point to tearing it down. (Take out their defense from that game, and the 49ers drop slightly from seventh to eighth.) 20th in D and 29th on ST passes the smell test because that's about the usual every year, no matter what. Fair enough. Then finishing with 3 wins gets us back to 95%. So we don't always see how the good defenses are impacting things, just that they don't look good, which is closer to what raw VOA measures. When Strouds No. We have updated our playoff odds report to account for the likelihood that Jimmy Garoppolo can return for the playoffs for San Francisco. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: collegefootball | pageType: stories | An Aaron Rodgers fantasy football comeback, perhaps? 2022 NFL MVP odds: Jalen Hurts on Patrick Mahomes' heels; Joe Burrow moves up to No. With 7 games remaining, can they hold off GB and catch MIN for the NFC North title? San Francisco DAVE has a large adjustment for Brock Purdy as the starting quarterback but assumes that Jimmy Garoppolo will return for the playoffs. For Weeks 12-17, the average pass defense faced by the Chargers allows 14.3% DVOA. I bought into the LaFleur scheme enough that I thought something like that "hot receiver rotation" could happen, and that this year's schedule was soft enough that they would still be in the 11-13 win range. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Alliteration! So far, the Texans' schedule of opposing offenses has ranked 26th. The College Football Playoff had some hard decisions to make after USC and TCU lost, but they got it right. Got to love FO (not being sarcastic). I don't remember Dallas matering to 49ers in the last two decades. Let's call it 6%. It's not that different from other LaFleur years, it's just missing that pass catcher(s) who gets open enough for the occasional shot play that can get them to/into the end zone. But other teams do see their schedule of run defenses get much easier. I'm shocked that the Patriots get 60% DVOA for their game against the Jets. I was of the opinion that running it back with Cousins and other vets was a mistake, the 8-1 start made that thought look foolish, but if they crash and burn the rest of the way, as seems likely, they will have wasted a chance to jettison Cousins and some other aging vets that now have an extra year of wear and tear and far less value. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 11. 2022 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS | Football Outsiders NFL Playoff Odds www.footballoutsiders.com Last edited: Nov 16, 2020 9 Nightshade and 6 others Nov 16, 2020 #2 Saint Spud Hall-of-Famer Joined Mar 6, 2002 Messages 12,030 Reaction score 29,035 Age 43 Online Our defense is balling right now. The Raiders move up one spot to 26th but the Broncos drop three spots from 22nd to 25th. . Filtering by Week 11 LAR WRs yielded no results. Your email address will not be published. TCU is the most unlikely team to win the four-team tournament. Michigan should make it more competitive than a 34-11 loss in their semifinals meeting last New Year's Eve. For the rest of the season, the Chargers face the easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses! 5. Pittsburgh and Buffalo face average schedules of offenses the rest of the way. Winning the division I don't see, but I can envision them beating out the Giants for the last playoff spot. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. It would have been an entertaining 4th quarter, with Williams likely pulling more magic out of his hat. How many college football bowl games are there in 2022-23? Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Get pressure on Stroud and he develops happy feet in the pocket. The Lakers went 8-2 SU before losing their last two Hard Rock International unveiled the new renderings for the redesign of The Mirage. I am sure this considered already, but how much is the Jet's own ineptidude considered in that ranking of pass defense? The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. Football Outsiders on Twitter: "FO Playoff Odds now updated. Or this site doesnt partake in the annual "the Cowboys are this year's sleeper team" articles and "the cowboys might have turned it around" articles whenever they win a game. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. No-vig odds below via DraftKings Sportsbook. The beatings will continue until Minnesota's DVOA improves. This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups. Here are the early odds for the national semifinals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Our friends at DraftKings have the Seahawks at 12th most likely to win, which seems to be the current. NFL Playoffs Odds, Picks, Predictions Bengals vs. Titans Odds Early Pick: Lean Titans -2.5 (to -3.5) Sigh. On the other hand, the Commanders . pic.twitter.com/O0hrpCxIDx. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? However, who else should be the No. Cory Kinnan. J.J. McCarthy has a far better arm that he gets credit for. The casino will be rebranded as Golden Nugget Hotel Want to stay up to date on all of the latest blogs, news, and Picks on The Sports Geek? There's a chance they could overtake the Eagles for the NFC East lead and the No. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). Saints vs. That's a little better than a 1/17 shot. Interestingly, the fringe AFC teams have future schedules in the exact inverse order of their DVOA rankings. DAVE is currently 16% preseason forecast and 84% actual performance for teams with 11 games, and 24% preseason forecast and 76% actual performance for teams with 10 games. BACK-TO-BACK.No. There are not too many differences between Georgia and Michigan, but the Bulldogs do everything just a bit better than the Wolverines. They are coming off a win in the underdog role over the Alabama Crimson Tide last year. Buccaneers Week 13 picks for Monday Night Football on December 5. We have the best defenses and offensive lines in college football if this is the matchup. There was some hope that Jaxon Smith-Njigba would return for the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs and Buckeyes are traditional powers that spent the majority of the season in the top four, and they have two of the best rosters in the country. In reply to A better question would be by KnotMe. It is the first playoff for the TCU Horned Frogs. As in, the number one -- the number of wins the Patriots have over the Broncos to give them an edge to land the top seed in the . The Miami Dolphins will look to keep pace in a tight AFC East divisional race -9.5SPREAD +100ODDS OUR PICK BILLS PLACE BET! Get FO+ Already a subscriber? Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. Their backs are against the wall. Bills at Patriots Thursday Night - NFL betting odds, picks, tips Week 11 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with an AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills (-4, 43.5) and New England. We have new, innovative methods for analyzing skill players, offensive and defensive lines, special teams, and total team efficiency. FiveThirtyEight decided after Week 13 that Minnesota was the eighth-best team in football with the second most-likely odds to reach the playoffs. The Vikings have played the No. This leaves Marvin Harrison Jr. alone as the only receiver that can beat the Georgia defense. Football Outsiders provides revolutionary, in-depth statistics you can't find anywhere else! Ohio State may not deserve a second chance after getting embarrassed on their home field. All of this is possible, but at some point, when multiple teams only manage a single field goal or less and no touchdowns, the evidence starts to point to the NE defense being pretty good. They should have an answer for the Horned Frogs from both angles through the air and ground. The college football regular season is in the books and we are on to the conference championships. (DAVE ratings are explained here.) 5 schedule of opposing offenses so far. Tennessee DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Ryan Tannehill. Cowboys Doubt Odell Beckham Will Play in 2022. Founder of Football Outsiders It'll be fascinating to see what happens on the odds board with both of these matchups over the next month. He struggled to figure out the Michigan defense last year. 3 TCU. Our AI predicts that the Utah Jazz will Lakers title odds improve as the team is starting to play better. Smith-Njigba will not be participating, though. Without Week 1, the Dallas offense would move from 14th to seventh in DVOA. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek. In reply to It's possible that the Jets by davelew. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns rank 14th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and weighted DVOA. The Patriots had 60.1% DVOA for this game. That's because their offense was so bad in Week 1. Defense is similar, 11th in pass VOA, 28th in run VOA. Just do not expect the same game as last year. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. I don't think NE's linebackers are fast enough to contain QBs who can make things happen once they escape the pocket. Georgia should advance for their second straight appearance in the National Championship. 4 USC to win their second consecutive Pac-12 Championship. If they do end up at #5, the Cowboys would be likely facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers unless they crumble and lose the division. I was of the opinion that running it back with Cousins and other vets was a mistake, the 8-1 start made that thought look foolish, but if they crash and burn the rest of the way, as seems likely, they will have wasted a chance to jettison Cousins and some other aging vets that now have an extra year of wear and tear and far less value. *Football Outsiders simulations have the Vikings slated for 12.1 victories this season better than any other team in the NFL. Click here for the full table. The reigning national champions have been a machine all season long, finishing off their run with a 50-30 win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game. A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. But some of those big wins weren't quite so big on the scoreboard. In other words, the oddsmakers at Bovada did not have much faith in USC beating Utah. Could be some really bad times coming for Viking fans in the next few years. All college football betting odds for Clemson vs North Carolina can be found at B ovada Sportsbook.. Moneyline: CLEM: (-280) | UNC: (+230) Point Spread: CLEM: -7.5 (-110) | UNC: +7.5 (-110) Total: 63.5 Over: (-110) | Under: (-110) College Football FEI Ratings. The Raiders outgained the Broncos 6.6 yards per play to 5.2 and the Broncos fumbled twice but recovered both. Max Duggan and the TCU are capable of moving the ball. VOA often matches the eye test better than DVOA, especially when you don't have time, or camera angles, to really see what was going on. They play the No. I just can't figure out what DVOA sees in the Packers offense to say it's the 9th best. They've played the third-hardest overall defensive schedule so far (third-hardest pass defense and hardest run defense as stated above). 1 Georgia (-7) vs. No. Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz tweeted earlier this week that New York's playoff odds would jump from 50% to 73% if the Giants claimed a Week 13 victory. The BEST team in the countryNo. However, the Buckeyes can still win the biggest prize of all in the College Football Playoff. Click on the button below to get free picks delivered to your email daily TheSportsGeek.com is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site of any kind. TheSportsGeek has our predictions for the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl. NFL Week 14 - Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Football Outsiders Data Show! The timing has been off a lot too, where Rodgers is throwing where he thinks the open receiver should be based on the play and how the defense redacted (I.e. 2 Michigan (-9.5) vs. No. These odds on TCU puts them on an island alone. That produces playoff odds and Super Bowl . Surprise tournament quarter-finalists Morocco will look to continue their impressive streak as they take on Come check out tonight's game as the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Dallas Mavericks! They are at +350 to beat Georgia and then their next opponent in the championship game. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Aaron and Mike are joined by Connor Rogers from SNY.tv & NBC Sports to go in-depth on the New York Jets and their Week 14 matchup with the Buffalo Bills. The Horned Frogs went from afterthought to undefeated regular-season power over the last three months and will take on a Wolverines team that is undefeated and riding high after their second straight Big Ten title. Stroud has to learn to read a good defense quickly. Michigan created a blueprint for beating Ohio State and the Bulldogs will use it for themselves. Current SB favorites: #BillsMafia 24.5% #FlyEaglesFly 19.8% #RavensFlock 9.4% #GoBucs 7.3% #ChiefsKingdom 6.6% #GoPackGo 5.1% #DallasCowboys 4.1%. Are there any others? Learn how your comment data is processed. Your 2022 Big Ten Championship MVP: Donovan Edwards @DEdwards__ x @UMichFootball pic.twitter.com/hrf0hPpAwz. Miami DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Tua Tagovailoa. The Wolverines should be too physical for TCU. That includes the Seahawks (31 so far, 5 to go), the 49ers (30 so far, 7 to go), the Jaguars (29 so far, 9 to go), and the Falcons (28 so far, 6 to go). The Funniest College Football Bowl Game Names, Best College Football Over/Under Bets For Week 14, Best College Football Underdog Bets for Week 14, Best College Football Over/Under Bets For Week 13, Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL SNF Week 14 Betting Pick December 11, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets NFL Week 14 Betting Pick December 11, Morocco vs. Portugal World Cup 2022 Quarter-Finals Betting Pick December 10, Bucks at Mavericks NBA AI Pick December 9th, Timberwolves at Jazz NBA AI Pick December 9th, Lakers Title Odds Move Up With AD Asserting Himself, Hard Rock International Bares Initial Plans for Renovation of The Mirage, Station Casinos Buys 67-Acre Lot for New Casino Resort, Baker Freakin' Mayfield Impacts L.A. Rams Super Bowl Odds, Fertitta Entertainment Completes Acquisition of Wildwood Casino in Cripple Creek. That's up from 25.2% last week. A key AFC East divisional clash will unfold on Sunday of NFL Week 14 action MONEYLINE -150ODDS OUR PICK PORTUGAL PLACE BET! The talent is there for the Buckeyes, but perhaps more importantly, they'll have a month off to prepare and get healthy -- particularly at running back. Currently, Football Outsiders sees the Bucs making the playoffs at a 52 percent chance. Cousins is exactly the type of QB this year's Pats defense is eating alive. ( DVOA ratings are explained here .) They drafted Moss the next season and they pretty good for a few years. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Change from Last Week = no change Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight. The Trojans were +1000 to win the college football championship going into the Pac-12 Championship Game. Blake Corum is not playing, but Edwards should run the distance. On the other hand, Jones only rated 50 DYAR in the Quick Reads column, so it isn't like FO's stats loved his play. The issues in the past where only Adams could get himself open and the rest of the pass catchers needed scheme to be open is still true for the most part. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? 1 RB for 2023, commits to TAMU, CBS Sports All-America Team: Big Ten dominates. The College Football Playoff is set, with the No. Here, it's snooze time. The College Football Playoff had some hard decisions to make after USC and TCU lost, but they got it right. The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs have the easiest remaining schedules. The Zimmer teams made decent runs in 17 and 19, but faded as the talent on the defence got old. NCAA Conference Championship - The big news we've expected for a while is now official, as college football's FBS level is going to a 12-team playoff beginning with the 2024 season. However, this offense has not played a unit like the Wolverines. "The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year.". Are the writers over 50 years old and still living the days of early 90s? We look at all these odds with the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation, simulating the season 50,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. 3 - The Athletic . Other teams with easy schedules for their defenses the rest of the way include the Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, and, as noted above, Chargers. Rather than the offensive incompetence from the Jets that it certainly felt like when watching the game? The exception will be snap counts, which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier. The Wolverines and Bulldogs are undefeated, while the Horned Frogs and Buckeyes each have a loss. Can TCU get this done and pull off a big upset? Kansas City (33.2%) and the AFC North (11.8% total, 9.6% for Cincinnati) follow. You only need to register (for free) and then log in to the site to view these pages. It wasn't mentioned in the quick-reads write up, but I'd suspect a lot of Mac's DYAR came from opponent adjustments against the #5 pass DVOA Jets (-10.8%). That did not happen, as Utah blew the Trojans out of Allegiant Stadium, 47-24. These statistics are complete from 1984 to 2021 and will be updated weekly throughout the 2022 NFL season. But, for the tippy-top of the league . They also have the Vikings with a 42.2 percent chance of getting. It's possible that the Lions had a bad game and didn't score at all against NE despite scoring 45 points the week before and averaging 25 points per game. While we give the Horned Frogs a better chance than +1600 of winning the National Championship, this is not a good matchup for them. 4 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes taking on the No. Yet their schedule of pass defenses gets even easier the rest of the way -- if we don't include their Week 18 game with Denver. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Vikings-Lions prediction and pick. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. That would be the New England Patriots, even though they needed a last-second punt return touchdown to avoid going to overtime with the New York Jets. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? The Pats spied him in the second and he went nowhere. NFC playoff clinching and elimination scenarios for Week 14 December football brings division and playoff-clinching scenarios for some teams and elimination scenarios for others. In reply to Worst 8-2 Teams by Jimmytossinbeachble. Arizona is 7-5 O/U overall, with a 4-2 O/U count at home. The third huge winner of the week? No. Alabama would have been in under the 12-team system. TCU isn't getting any respect. Do not be surprised to see these two in the College Football Championship. It is your responsibility to verify such matters and to know and follow your local laws. Does not account for traded picks. Their remaining opponents rank 30th in pass defense. Sure, the Dolphins have a great offense, but four of Los Angeles' seven remaining opponents are in the bottom eight for offensive DVOA. In reply to Why would writers being by greybeard. Georgia survives, but the Wolverines will be ready to play this time. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. Rodgers has also flat out missed the throw on several broken plays where a receiver has worked themselves open too. It is worth mentioning that this is the second last season with a four-team College Football Playoff. If you want an in-depth analysis, please check back closer to New Years Eve for our official College Football Playoff picks and props. Here are the Football Outsiders playoff seeding odds for the Cowboys: #1 seed: 15% #5 seed: 75% For illustration, the Vikings' odds for the #1 seed is 3% per Football Outsiders. The Eagles drop to fourth after a close escape against the Colts. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. 4 Ohio State No. 4 Ohio State in the Peach Bowl national semifinal, and No. The quarterbacks are fine and close to the same level. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) As of this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in the past. The four-team College Football Playoff is set, and it will consist of Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State. They should be fine against the Vikings this week, though. The run game has been very good at times though, just not always used in the best situations so it doesn't help win chances. Find out why he likes the Bucs and 49ers to cover, plus what his leans are on the Bills-Chiefs and Bengals-Titans spreads. This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Keep in mind, the steadiest writers are Eagles and 49ers fans -- so this site has some ingrained loathing for the Cowboys. But here's the list of the 10 worst 8-2 teams. The most well-rounded teams this season have been Georgia and Michigan. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. They're 9th in offensive DVOA, but only 15th in VOA. The Vikings are on the verge of a playoff berth. At least if you look at it from the College Football Playoff odds before the conference championships. In reply to Keep in mind, the steadiest by Aaron Brooks G. The public does not have much faith in TCU following their 31-28 loss in the Big 12 Championship Game. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? (Could be faulty memory, but sure feels like the weekly DVOA article would typically have many more comments than this by now! 2 Michigan (-9.5) vs. No. But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. Here's where Football Outsiders has their chances after four weeks: Playoffs: 15.5% Division: 10% Super Bowl: 0.2% The Bears' 0.2% chance at winning the Super Bowl is tied with the Steelers and Dolphins for the 25th "best" odds in the league. Mac Jones' QBR is probably very low because he was heavily dependent on YAC. Why? That starts with the Chiefs (2 so far, 23 to go) but also the Rams (6 so far, 32 to go), the Cardinals (9 so far, 29 to go), and the Saints (10 so far, 28 to go). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. In reply to And a good thing it is for by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. They do everything right offensively and defensively. Buccaneers Week 13 picks Comparing their schedule so far to their remaining schedule is absolutely wild. It's almost all defense, even after adjusting for the Jets offense. (Nevertheless, the playoff odds report still gives Philadelphia a 75% chance to win.). Not all possible Super Bowls are listed. So the Chargers go from playing a schedule that's been very easy for their offense and hard for their defense to a schedule that will be very easy for their passing game and defense but hard for their running game. The Wolverines have the easier matchup in the semifinals against TCU. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? 1. After a sloppy win, but win nonetheless, against the Houston Texans, the Cleveland Browns saw their playoff odds take a slight bump. Aaron Schatz, Vince Verhei, and Bryan Knowles are here to share some of the most surprising, mind-boggling, and outright embarrassing statistics through Week 13 of the 2022 NFL regular season. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. pic.twitter.com/YKBLpG8oJn. Before breaking down each of these categories, we've got to talk about the Los Angeles Chargers. This is the playoffs, though, and everyone is even now. Filtering by Week 11 ATL LBs yielded no results. Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) November 7, 2022 The NFL is a truly ridiculous league. Well the scheme/QB willingness/receiver base level skill sliders aren't good enough for that to work. The FINAL top-25 CFP rankings Where did your team land? TheSportsGeek looks to add +3.5SPREAD -110ODDS OUR PICK CHARGERS PLACE BET! Since backing Georgia two months ago at +215 odds, not much has changed in our view, though. Michigan and Ohio State have considerably better odds to win the college football championship. 1 in weighted DVOA, which lowers the importance of early-season games. How many do they have to lose before we can stop making those lists? The 2022-23 College Football Playoff picture is complete after a thrilling weekend of conference championship football. With a record of 8-4 and wins in five of the last six weeks, even the advanced statistics are favoring the Dolphins. When looking at seeding, remember seven teams from each conference make the playoffs. Here are the early odds for the national semifinals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Don't be surprised if the offense improves in terms of points scored or aesthetics from here out and we start hearing narratives about the young receivers starting to figure it out. ), In reply to Got to love FO (not being by BlueStarDude. Michigan is rated highly in the secondary and at the line against the run. Sports betting and gambling laws vary by jurisdiction. 1 Georgia will look to defend its national championship against No. The Minnesota Vikings drop seven spots in DVOA, from 17th to 24th. To best of knowledge you are the only 49ers fan at FO staff. They are in after finishing 12-1, with a loss in the Big 12 Championship. The Horned Frogs are +7.5 underdogs in the semifinals, and then would be underdogs against Ohio State or Georgia. Baltimore (6 so far, 25 to go) and Washington (9 so far, 31 to go) also face much easier schedules of opposing pass defenses the rest of the way. Visit our College Football Betting Sites page for the latest College Football Playoff odds and the best online sportsbooks. 1 @GeorgiaFootball pic.twitter.com/YNb89sMriY. With the Patriots' loss to Green Bay, we now have a situation where all the numbers involved in the Football Outsiders playoff simulation favor Denver except for one. The Patriots outgained the Jets on average 5.0 yards per play to 2.1 yards per play. The rest of the way, it ranks second. The Cowboys are now ahead of the Eagles for the NFC East lead in DVOA although the Eagles are still two games ahead where it really matters, the win column. College Football Playoff odds No. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. The lines will certainly move between now and New Year's Eve based on a variety of factors, and it'll be interesting to see how things progress during the layoff. The game kicks off at 1 pm ET. 1 seed. Required fields are marked *. So far, only the Pittsburgh Steelers have faced a harder schedule of opposing offenses. To be fair, I am over 50 years oldat heart. This will be the first time ever in College Football Playoff history that Clemson and Alabama are both left out of the playoffs. QBR takes that out, while DVOA/DYAR does not. Cin(10-1), NE(11-6), NYJ(13-12), LAC(22-32!) Football Outsiders' model is less bullish on the Chargers, giving them a 16.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, down from 29.7 percent heading into Week 13. BetMGM books are reporting 73% of bets and 89% . Subscribe Now Get all the features and proprietary analytics you can't get anywhere else. Again, Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers will play a big role in the college football championship. Teams in the hunt with at least five wins are listed. As we've seen, a lot can change in two . To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: is clearly ranked because . On the other hand, those teams had much higher DVOA than this year's Vikings, who are way in last place now. 538 has our odds of playoffs at 82% and -7% is the minimum amount of optimism that I find healthy to withhold ;) If we lose the next 3 straight we still have a 35% chance, which is great. They do this every week, and they arrive at the projections by running the season 10,000 times. Did DVOA see the Patriots' performance as a massive defensive tour de force? Football Outsiders (FO) have just released their latest playoff odds for each NFL team. So the Bucs are still the favorite to win the division, despite a 3-5 record and being a game behind Atlanta. Coach Sonny Dykes is one of the most innovative in college football, and a month to look at this Michigan team after grinding it out for two months will undoubtedly serve him well. NE's D, though, seems tuned to take on pocket passers, not mobile guys. This is not a paywall*! 28 schedule of opposing pass defenses. Then we are going to make our prediction for the college football National Championship. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. The Horned Frogs plowed through arguably the toughest schedule in major college football and found ways to get it done in a variety of different ways. Odell Beckham Jr. during his free agency visit with the Dallas Cowboys. The Patriots for this game: -10% offense, -60% defense, +10% special teams. In the first game, he put up some big plays with his legs. But playing in a dome, Folk is likely to kick 5 to 6 40-yard field goals to give NE enough points to not have to rely on a last minute punt return TD to score. Notice that three of them made it to the Super Bowl! The company is planning a massive billion-dollar renovation of Station Casinos has acquired a 67-acre land at Losee Road with plans to build a new casino resort. That moves the Cowboys up from fourth to second in DVOA. 6 sacks for 48 yards will do that, I suppose. The top three schedules of offenses faced so far belong to the Steelers, Chargers and Bills. Do we have a rematch between Ohio State and Michigan coming up? C.J. Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 13. #FTTB https . NFL Playoff Odds, Fringe Teams Odds as of Dec. 8 3 Week 14 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances Vikings At Lions Vikings current seed: 2nd Click here for the full table. Look for Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers to take the game over in the Ohio State secondary. Three games this week had a single-game DVOA over 60%, but one of them will not be obvious. The reason FO comment boards don't care about Dallas is because they have not had any real success since 1995. Why would writers being 49ers fans matter? That's a sign of a battle-tested and complete team that deserves to be recognized as a worthy foe, not just a cute little story. The Jets drop from ninth to 13th. We are not able to verify the legality of the information we provide, or your ability to use any sites that are linked to on this site, for every combination of your location, the sites location, and the type of service those sites provide. Stroud and the Buckeyes were unable to move the ball and I cant see TCU figuring it out. While the playoffs are still technically possible I gave up on making it after the Tennessee loss. It's also interesting to note that the Eagles no longer have the easiest schedule in the division; the Cowboys' remaining schedule is easier than Philadelphia's by average DVOA of opponent. Here are the division odds from Football Outsiders: 49ers: 51.2 percent Rams: 25.8 percent Seahawks: 20.1 percent Cardinals: 2.9 percent If they get healthy down the stretch the 49ers are the. The Patriots moved up to first in defense and overall improved by nearly five percentage points of DVOA, although that only means one place in the rankings from 12th to 11th. (Before Nov. 1, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) According to Football Outsiders, the Browns' odds of making the playoffs are up from 2.7 percent a week ago to 4.4 percent today. However, this schedule gets much, much harder the rest of the way. Odds as of 1:10 p.m. on 12/03/2022. Bring the adjustments in and that jumps to 16th and 5th and thus 9th overall. In fact, the losers of these games may have moved down even more than the winners moved up. 2004-2022 CBS Interactive. If Williams does not pull his hamstring, does USC win that game? On October 25, the 49ers' odds of making the playoffs were 20% per ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), 27% per Football Outsiders, and only 16% on 538. Michigan, Georgia, and Ohio State are not newcomers to the College Football Playoff. 2022 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS This table explained Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13 Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. The schedule also gets harder for the Giants (26 so far, 2 to go) and the Raiders (23 so far, 3 to go). Your email address will not be published. Our total DVOA stats page lists each team's remaining schedule based on average DVOA of opponent. Our AI predicts that the Dallas Mavericks will Come check out tonight's game as the Minnesota Timberwolves take on the Utah Jazz! On the other hand, the Arizona Cardinals have had it easy so far with the No. They also ran more plays, 59 to 49, meaning that in total they outgained the Jets by nearly 200 yards. If the game was being played outdoors, the Vikings might still have a chance. However, the College Football Playoff committee avoided a major controversy by denying the Crimson Tide. The Chargers' schedule is filled with teams that are better against the run than the pass, including the Raiders (32/22), the Titans (13/1), the Dolphins (29/9), the Colts (14/6), and the Rams (26/5). One other victory that might be a bit larger than expected belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders, who beat Denver 22-16 in overtime. A Jets win would have been a massive reversal according to Post-Game Win Expectancy. 1? It's straight forward because they are facing the second place Detroit Lions who sit five games . Per Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh has just a 1% chance of claiming a division title and a 6.1% shot at making the playoffs. It may happen with the easier schedule. I've been having trouble getting to the site recently, don't know if it has been on my end or theirs, but it wouldn't shock me if comments are down the last few days. After a quick look through my clips from the . It's Trading Places Week at the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, with a . Other teams where it gets harder include the New York Giants (23 so far, 4 to go), the Tennessee Titans (21 so far, 6 to go), and the Cincinnati Bengals (18 so far, 5 to go). That will generate the new narrative. I watched large parts of it and it felt pretty horrible. The College Football Playoff odds have the Georgia Bulldogs as the favorites to win. While the shape of the playoff race has been clear for some time, we still don't actually know any single team will actually be playing football in late January; historic collapses are still possible, if not exactly probable. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. Should make an exciting race. San Francisco's two best offensive performances of the year have come in the last three games. When we look at remaining offensive schedules, I'm going to include Week 18. It's no surprise that the top two seeds are favored, as both Georgia and Michigan . All they had to do was beat the Utah Utes in the Pac-12 Championship. The DLine is playing like they're on fire. We have the latest College Football Playoff odds and best CFP predictions. Ohio State has a tough matchup in the semifinals against Georgia. Alabama had the better odds throughout the season. As already mentioned this does show up in DVOA. The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at . Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. The special teams mirage of the first four games was revealed, which doesn't help. Lets get into the College Football Playoff odds and our College Football Playoff predictions at TheSportsGeek. Heading into Week 8, here's a playoff projection. The Chargers have also played the easiest schedule of run defenses so far. AFC playoff projections 1. Aaron and Mike will then wrap up with a quick preview of Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Lions, Buccaneers-49ers, and Dolphins-Chargers. New England Patriots. Only the Cincinnati Bengals (12th so far) have a harder schedule of opposing offenses for the rest of the season. College Football Week Bowl Game Odds, Opening Lines Friday, December 16, 2022 HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl UAB vs Miami University Fiu First Guess: UAB -10.5 Actual Line: UAB -11.5 Duluth Trading Cure Bowl Troy vs UTSA Fiu First Guess: UTSA -2.5 Actual Line: Troy -2.5 Saturday, December 17, 2022 Wasabi Fenway Bowl Louisville vs Cincinnati #Seahawks +17.7% #TakeFlight +15.8% #GoBucs +11.0% This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 11 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here ). For one, we know he will officially be without one of his favorite receivers. Editor-in-Chief Those schedules rank 23rd and 24th in Weeks 12-17. That moves the 49ers up five spots from 11th to sixth this week. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. The USC defense was embarrassing, but we think so. The New York Times gives the Bills an 80% chance to win the . While not astronomical, those odds are, at least, not zero. As a result of the loss, Ohio State is on the College Football Playoff odds board. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . The betting windows are open. The four-team College Football Playoff field is set, and it features three superpowers plus one upstart program that is finally getting its chance. With the crazy NFC North results this past weekend, Football Outsiders' playoff odds in that division have changed considerably from a week ago. Updated Football Outsiders playoff odds! After selecting Georgia at +215 two months ago, we have been too right to jump off the ship now. This is not a paywall*! trusting the scheme got them open) and the receiver wasn't there for various reasons (wrong option break, route a bit sloppier and hence slower). We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes. So again as mentioned by others if Watson/Doubs/Watkins when off IR/Lazard can just rotate games where one of them actually does reliably get open so 15-25 yard passes can happen a couple times a game you are back to 2019 or 2021 offensive production. The Cardinals drop from 29th to 31st. It would be so funny if they inverted their start: losing games but winning by DVOA, gradually improving their DVOA as the losses pile up until they're like 14th with a 9-8 record. 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